El-Rufai Detention Could Trigger Sympathy, Influence APC’s Political Fortunes – Analysts

The continued detention of former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has generated fresh political debate over what his absence could mean for the All Progressives Congress, APC, as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections.

El-Rufai, a prominent figure in Northern Nigerian politics and one of the influential politicians associated with the emergence of the APC, has remained in detention since February 2026 amid corruption-related investigations and court proceedings.

The former governor was arraigned by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission, ICPC, in March on money-laundering charges. He pleaded not guilty to the allegations.

His prolonged detention has become a subject of political discussion, particularly following his alignment with the opposition African Democratic Congress, ADC. While some analysts believe his detention could weaken opposition preparations by keeping an experienced political strategist away from active campaigning, others argue that it could eventually produce sympathy and become a rallying point against the ruling party.

Political scientist, Dr Kabiru Said Sufi, said the eventual political consequences would depend largely on how Nigerians interpret the case.

According to Sufi, the public perception surrounding El-Rufai’s detention is crucial because citizens may either regard it as a legitimate accountability process or see it as part of a struggle among political elites.

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“People seem to be seeing it either as an elitist fight, the latest fight of the elites, or as a fight between the political class,” Sufi said.

He observed that public anger surrounding the matter appeared to have reduced considerably, while opposition parties had also failed to sustain the issue as a major political campaign.

“Surprisingly, even the opposition itself has been somehow quiet,” he said.

Sufi argued that the APC could gain an organisational advantage from El-Rufai’s absence because of his experience and strategic importance within opposition politics.

“I think the APC government has smartly moved the issue to the judiciary, passed on the issue to the judiciary, and there is less anger over the issue,” he said.

“For now, the way it will help the APC is that one of the strategists of the opposition has been taken out of the equation.”

However, he warned that the political calculation could change if public anger returns.

“If the kind of interest and anger we have felt at the beginning had been sustained, then it would have worked against the APC government,” Sufi said.

Political commentator, Comrade Aminu Rabiu Kano, also identified both advantages and risks for the ruling party.

Kano described El-Rufai as an important Northern politician whose political history extends beyond his tenure as Kaduna governor.

“El-Rufai is not an ordinary politician. He is a former governor, a prominent northern political figure and one of the politicians who played a significant role in the emergence of the APC,” he said.

He noted that the Federal Government could defend the case by presenting it as an accountability and rule-of-law matter. However, he stressed that political perception could become more important as the case continues.

“Whether that argument is correct or not is a separate question, but politically, perception matters,” Kano said.

According to him, detention could restrict El-Rufai’s ability to participate physically in political activities, but it may not necessarily destroy his influence.

“Detaining a politician can restrict his physical participation in politics, but it does not necessarily eliminate his political influence,” he said.

Kano further cautioned against assuming that Northern voters would automatically respond to the issue in one direction.

He said voters consider several factors during elections, including insecurity, economic conditions, government performance, candidates, political alliances and local structures.

“If people predominantly see it as a genuine legal process, its electoral impact may be limited,” he said.

“If, however, a significant section of the electorate comes to perceive it as political persecution, then it could become a useful mobilising issue for the opposition.”

Comrade Umar Muhammad Kofar Naisa, Country Director of the Society for Educational Development and Socio-Democratic Activities, SEDSAC, offered a more critical assessment of the potential consequences for the APC.

He argued that the former governor’s continued detention could generate sympathy among his supporters and potentially translate into electoral consequences.

“Continued detention of El-Rufai could hurt the APC, especially because he has many supporters as a former governor. It could generate sympathy among the people, and that sympathy may turn into votes on election day,” Kofar Naisa said.

He also linked El-Rufai’s political history to the emergence of the Tinubu administration.

“Anyone who knows the history of the Tinubu administration knows that El-Rufai played a role in bringing it to power. His arrest has further damaged the government’s image because people see it as going after opposition figures,” he said.

Kofar Naisa warned that the case could also influence how APC members view internal disagreements with the Federal Government.

“Continued detention could reduce the courage of some APC members because they may feel that whatever contribution they make could eventually lead them to the same situation El-Rufai has found himself in if they disagree with the Federal Government,” he said.

Meanwhile, Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, has questioned the consistency of Nigeria’s anti-corruption campaign, using El-Rufai’s detention as an example.

Speaking to Channels Television in Lagos, Sanusi said Nigeria has institutions and courts responsible for investigating and prosecuting corruption allegations, but emphasised the need for consistency.

“An example is my brother Nasir El-Rufai who’s been denied bail. He’s been in detention for seven months, not having been convicted for anything,” he said.

The Emir’s comments have added another dimension to the debate over whether the case will ultimately be viewed as a straightforward legal process or as a politically significant development.

With the 2027 elections approaching, analysts agree that the political consequences will depend heavily on public perception, the duration of the proceedings and how both the APC and opposition parties frame the issue before voters.